The Chapman Creek and Edwards Lake snowpacks are at a record low for this time of year, according to B.C.’s River Forecast Centre Snow Survey and Water Supply Bulletin, released Feb. 1.
As of the snow survey conducted in late January, Chapman Creek’s snow water equivalent was 43 per cent of its normal volume.
Sunshine Coast Regional District (SCRD) general manager of Infrastructure Services, Remko Rosenboom, said it’s too early in the season to tell how concerned Coasters should be about the summer water supply. “Usually the snowpack in January is still building,” he said. “It's the February and primarily the March [snowpack] that's really driving snow melt afterwards.”
The snowpack generally builds until March, said Rosenboom.
The SCRD will conduct another snow survey at the end of February, at which point they’ll know more about how the snowpack will develop through the next month. Last weekend’s colder temperatures and rain resulted in a bit more snow, said Rosenboom, but they’ll have to watch to see how that will balance with melting in the month ahead.
“I expect that we need substantially more days with low temperatures and rain at sea level to get back to a snowpack we would like to see ideally,” he said.
The summer’s water supply also depends on how warm the temperatures are in the spring – a slow melt will sustain the water supply longer than a rapid melt. “In the last several years, we had a lot of snow, but it was gone fairly quickly because we had a warm spring,” said Rosenboom. “And we’ve had years where there was a lesser snowpack, but also cooler spring, so the snow melt was slow and it lasted for a long time.”
This said, seasonal weather forecasts from Environment and Climate Change Canada show a “very high likelihood” of above normal temperatures across B.C. between February to April, and a moderate likelihood of warmer than normal temperatures from May to July.
While the next couple of months will confirm whether there will be the anticipated early melt, the SCRD is planning for it, said Rosenboom. The implementation of the drought response plan is usually started in April – Rosenboom sees that starting “a little bit earlier” this year.
Different from previous years, the Church Road Well Field is ready to run at full capacity (up to 4.6 million litres of water per day, according to the SCRD), rather than the partial capacity of last year, said Rosenboom. He said its final commissioning took place in early December.
How important is snow melt to the water supply? When talking about the Chapman Water System – which supplies the majority of the Coast – and to a degree the South Pender system, the snow melt supply determines the start of Stage 2 restrictions. Stage 2 starts when the snow melt is gone and water is no longer flowing over the Chapman dam, said Rosenboom. “After Stage 2, we're completely reliant on the amount of water that's currently in the lake itself, and any rainfall that might happen.”
Of course, the lack of snow this year is not restricted to the Sunshine Coast: ski resorts around B.C. are cancelling their seasons due to lack of snow. The River Forecast Centre report shows that the province’s snowpack is averaging 61 per cent of normal. Eighteen per cent lower than the snowpack at this time last year. This is prompting concerns of prolonged drought and its effects on wildlife and jobs.
Talking with colleagues in other regions, Rosenboom said he’s seeing the Sunshine Coast is ahead of other local governments in its drought response. “There are a lot of local governments that are only now looking at alternative water supplies or are now developing or reviewing their drought response plans.
“Well, we already have a solid drought response plan that is in place and has been tested for years now. And we have already developed an additional water supply source [of a] large amount, because of the ongoing drought.
“In a way, in terms of knowledge and understanding of our systems, and how to respond to to dry summers, I think we're actually well ahead of a lot of other local governments.”
“We're also seeing what's happening out there and we also know the weather forecast,” said Rosenboom. “We're hoping for those lower temperatures and the rain to come in upcoming weeks and time will tell if it indeed is the case and we'll go from there.
“But I think we are as prepared as we can be.”
– With files from Stefan Labbé
