John Reynolds, the incumbent MP for the riding of West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast, was a clear front-runner as the federal election campaign began last week.
Norman Ruff, a political scientist at the University of Victoria, noted Reynolds won by a "significant margin" in the 2000 election, taking almost 47 per cent of the vote while his Liberal challenger got less than 27 per cent. While not all the Alliance and Progressive Conservative votes from the last election will go to the Conservative Party this time, Ruff said, it doesn't look like Reynolds is facing a close race.
While some incumbents in B.C. will face challenging three-way races as votes split among NDP, Liberal and Conservative candidates, Ruff said, "I don't think Reynolds is one of them."
Reynolds is a veteran politician who has been elected to Parliament under the banners of the Progressive Conservatives, the Reform Party and the Canadian Alliance, as well as being elected to the B.C. Legislature twice as a Socred. After backing Stephen Harper in his successful bid for the leadership of the newly-formed Conservative Party of Canada, Reynolds is now the Opposition House leader.
His opponents are political neophytes by comparison.
Liberal candidate Blair Wilson is a West Vancouver chartered accountant and restaurant owner. Nicholas Simons, the NDP candidate, works for the Sechelt Indian Band as director of the band's health and social development department. Andrea Goldsmith, the Green Party candidate, is a Gibsons' town councillor and plans to devote Tuesdays to town business during the federal campaign.
A poll of 600 residents in this riding, commissioned by the Conservative Party, showed the Conservatives at 36 per cent, Liberals at 30, NDP at 22 and Greens at 11. But when respondents were given the names of the candidates, Reynolds said, his support rose to 47 per cent.
"Experience has benefit," said Reynolds.
However, B.C.'s political winds could shift before the June 28 election. The NDP is regaining its pre-1993 standing, said Ruff, winning back some of the support that it lost to both Liberal and Reform/Alliance parties in past elections. Meanwhile the Liberals have failed to gain the momentum they hoped for, he added, "largely because of the way the sponsorship scandal has played in B.C."
"The B.C. polls are still unsteady," said Ruff. "It may not be until we get to the leadership debate that we have a sense of momentum."
Reynolds' challengers were optimistic and running hard on the campaign trail when reached for interviews May 27."I'm running to win, but I'm obviously the underdog," said Simons as he walked through pouring rain in Pender Harbour, on his way to Powell River. "As I always tell my baseball team, keep it close and keep it respectable, and you never know what will happen in the ninth inning."
Wilson, who was crossing the Lions Gate Bridge on his way to a Liberal Party event with Prime Minister Paul Martin in Surrey, was upbeat about being a newcomer to politics.
"Paul Martin is bringing a lot of fresh new people into politics," said Wilson. "We're taking a grassroots approach. We're going right to the voter."
Goldsmith, on the ferry back to Gibsons after filing her candidacy papers in West Vancouver, said she is considered one of the Green Party's star candidates.
"This is a winnable seat for the Green Party," she said.
For his part, Reynolds was busy deflecting some mudslinging from a Bowen Island accountant who questioned Reynolds' travel expenses.
Elbert Paul said he wants the auditor general to look into Reynolds' travel costs for the past four years to see if some should have been paid by his party or by the Stephen Harper leadership campaign. Paul said Reynolds' travel expenses were $193,184 for 2003 and $192,198 for 2002, more than three times the travel expenses of MP Keith Martin, and will be even higher for 2004.
Reynolds agreed that his travel expenses are "in the top 20" of all MPs, but said his expenses are lower than Svend Robinson's as well as those of eight or nine Liberal MPs. Reynolds said the MPs with the highest travel costs are all hard-working and mostly live in B.C. or Newfoundland and said he is following the same rules as everyone else.
"The critic from Bowen Island is a well-known Liberal who wants to compare me to Keith Martin, who never shows up to vote." said Reynolds. "That's the best the Liberals can do. They're corrupt."
Asked which issues are most important this election, many of the candidates named health care, education and the sponsorship scandal. Wilson said he's particularly passionate about education and, if elected, wants to expand the Canada Student Loans program, as well as focus on preparing for the 2010 Olympics. Reynolds said infrastructure concerns, such as the highway to Whistler and federal funding for ferries, are resonating with voters.
Simons said new party leader Jack Layton's "broad-based, comprehensive platform" is attracting voters.
Goldsmith pointed to a recent Town of Gibsons vote to use Shaw Road, not Mahon Road, to access a new seniors' care home as an example of the Green philosophy to be fiscally conservative and socially responsible.
"I just helped the town save $300,000 and avoid putting a road through a park," she said.
- With files from Laura Walz, Powell River Peak
