As the province awaits the formation of the next provincial government, there are lessons from the campaign that affect all political parties.
The first one is that all politics is local. Leaders can no longer say the same things in Richmond and Prince George. The fate of the two major political parties in the two biggest cities outlines the complexity of modern campaigns.
In Surrey, the BC New Democratic Party (NDP) secured six of nine seats in 2017 and seven of nine seats in 2020. The governing party could only hold on to four of 10 seats in 2024, including the last one to be called. The Conservative Party of B.C. clearly connected with their proposals on health care and transportation, making voters in Surrey wary of endorsing the current government. A lot of policy, and concrete action, will be required to entice Surrey voters back into the BC NDP fold.
Things were different in Vancouver. The BC NDP won eight of 11 ridings in 2017, nine of 11 in 2020 and 10 of 11 in 2024. In Vancouver-Yaletown, which would have gone BC Liberal four years ago if it had existed, voters favoured the New Democrats. In Vancouver-Langara, which voted BC Liberal since its creation in 1991, the BC NDP secured 48 per cent of all cast ballots. Vancouver, two years removed from the victory for Ken Sim and A Better City (ABC), tilted centre-left — something to ponder in the expected by-election to replace city Coun. Christine Boyle.
The televised debate provided a chance for voters to get to know the leaders, particularly the two who had never participated in it. BC Conservative Leader John Rustad missed an important chance to establish an emotional connection with voters, and his party was not able to catch the BC NDP on votes or seats. Rustad now gets a new opportunity, leading a larger caucus. Establishing a grown-up opposition that can go beyond platitudes and focus on the issues that are the purview of the provincial government could solidify the position all opposition leaders wish to attain: premier-in-waiting.
The emphasis on the statements of BC Conservative candidate Brent Chapman during the final days of the campaign did not help the BC NDP. Only 11 per cent of voters in our “Exit Poll” told us that the candidate in the riding is their primary reason for selecting a party over another. The public focused mostly on the party’s ideas and policies (44 per cent) and the party’s leader (24 per cent) before making a choice. On nomination day, the BC NDP issued a press release calling on Rustad to remove seven of his candidates. Four of them ended up winning their seats. Outrage over social media posts is not universal, especially among voters who grew up using these platforms.
Some British Columbians are open to developing a two-party system. More than a third (35 per cent) would like to see a formal merger between the BC Conservatives and BC United, and more than two in five (44 per cent) would welcome a union of the BC NDP and the BC Green Party. The Greens will endure a severe reduction of the per-vote subsidy. They will have to decide if the prospect of running candidates in every riding, a feat that has eluded them in the past two provincial elections, is still worth pursuing.
In a strange twist, the year will end exactly as the last one: with questions about the future of the “free enterprise coalition.” The collapse of BC United had little to do with apathy and a lot to do with antipathy. Properly conducted public opinion research documented a decline that leader Kevin Falcon disparaged. There will be an opportunity to review whether a centrist vehicle, perhaps relying heavily on the BC Liberal brand, is feasible. Nobody should say the mission is impossible: we just witnessed a BC Conservative party rise from two per cent of the vote to Official Opposition status.
In 2024, no independent candidates — whether well-known figures previously elected as BC Liberals or newcomers clamoring for change — were able to secure a seat in the Legislative Assembly. For those who chose to remain on the ballot after their leader exited political life, the task was difficult. They operated without a party machinery in an election where late-deciders were either afraid of the alternative or spiteful of the status quo. You can bring Rafael Nadal to your tennis tournament, but having him play with a wooden racquet will yield different results.
Contrary to 2017, this year’s provincial election did not deliver a change in government. When the vote is as close as this one, a reset is required. BC NDP Leader David Eby heads to Victoria with several ministerial vacancies and a need to recover lost ground in areas where decisive action is expected.
During his appearance at Conversations Live in September, Eby acknowledged that the real measurement of a government’s success would be if people “have seen an impact […] can see that their lives are better and heading in the right direction.” The provincial government cannot afford to wait until a campaign begins to connect with the public. In the next election, voters will have to choose the BC NDP for what it has achieved, instead of looking at the governing party as the lesser of two evils.
Mario Canseco is president of Research Co.
Results are based on an online survey conducted on October 19 and October 20, 2024, among 700 adults in British Columbia who voted in the 2024 provincial election. The margin of error — which measures sample variability — is +/- 3.7 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, 19 times out of 20.
