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As Canadians prepare to head to the polls, the riding of West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country finds itself at the intersection of national and local political concerns. According to Stewart Prest, a professor of political science at the University of British Columbia, the election will be shaped by both overarching national issues and specific regional factors that resonate with voters.
As of March 26, the riding's candidates are incumbent Liberal Patrick Weiler; the Conservative Party’s Keith Roy; 18-year-old Jäger Rosenberg for the NDP; Squamish Councillor Lauren Greenlaw for the Greens; the People’s Party’s Peyman Askari; and the Animal Protection Party of Canada's Sanaz Mani.
Candidates will be confirmed April 9, with advance polling taking place across the country from April 18 to 21.
Election day is Monday, April 28.
Key election issues
Prest said some of the same issues are going to be clearly present in this riding compared to everywhere in Canada.
"Tariffs and annexation threat influences the way people look at the election and anxieties around it," Prest said. That uncertainty, he explained, frames how voters perceive the stakes of the upcoming election.
Locally, the housing crisis and environmental preservation are key issues.
"Housing affordability, battles over funding and support, densification ... preservation of the environment" are all issues likely to dominate discussions, Prest said.
In Squamish, debates over the development of LNG remain polarizing. On the left, Prest said some people don’t see traditional "left-leaning" parties championing their values.
"The Greens face an uphill battle, but they may have more of a chance catching up in this riding," he said.
Shifting political climate
Asked for predictions, Prest was careful.
"I'm cautious to answer that definitively without any polling," he said. However, he believes "the election is up for grabs." The Liberals could benefit from "a moment of patriotism and defence of the country," but if voters focus on "affordability and perception of a government not assisting constituents, Conservatives could win," Prest said.
The riding's diverse demographics further complicate predictions.
"It's where city meets country," Prest explained, pointing to urban concerns in West Vancouver, environmental debates in Squamish, and tourism-driven interests in Whistler. "West Vancouver is part of Metro Van that is particularly resistant to increased density ... while in Squamish, there is a pronounced environment concern." Whistler, he added, is "dependent on development and tourist-friendly support systems at the same time that economy is also predicated on the preservation of environmental integrity."
Candidate and party dynamics
Incumbent Weiler remains a strong contender, but Prest sees a competitive race ahead.
"It does seem like it's his race to win at the moment," he said, adding that "Liberals are enjoying a surge in popularity" due to their strong stance "in defence of the country using appropriate means against tariffs and annexation." However, Prest warned "it's not definitive," as the election remains "fluid" and voter dissatisfaction with the establishment could open doors for the Conservatives.
The role of party leaders will be crucial.
"The impact across the country has been dramatic," Prest said. "We are in a leader-centred era of politics ... Leaders are the face of the country in international tensions."
The unpredictability of current politics places "importance on leaders' values," making voters consider "who you best trust to guide the country," Prest said.
Local concerns: housing, transit, and the economy
Housing affordability is "very clearly in people's minds," according to Prest, who observes a growing sense "that the social contract is starting to break down on housing." How this issue will influence the election depends on whether voters prioritize affordability and government decisions that did this, which could favour the Conservatives, or whether they focus on "the threat of the future," which could benefit the Liberals.
Transportation is another pressing issue, particularly for commuters along the Sea to Sky corridor. Prest expects "commitments from all three major parties about investment in transit and infrastructure," noting "the federal government increasingly is willing to invest municipally, even trying to move provincial jurisdiction to cities."
Meanwhile, economic policies remain critical for local businesses.
"The federal government decision-making ... is still profound for economic support for business needs," Prest explained. Small and large businesses rely on "support looking to build market share abroad, and looming over all of that is supporting businesses impacted by tariffs," he added.
Indigenous rights and misinformation
Despite the importance of Indigenous rights, Prest argued the issue is "being drowned out" by other political debates. He sees "a clear divide in the approach of the two leading parties," with Conservatives focusing on "economic reconciliation," while the Liberals continue to emphasize "the importance of acting on social issues of Indigenous rights."
Misinformation is also shaping voter perceptions.
"The subset that is very distrustful of mainstream media and are only getting it from social media ... are much more likely to be exposed to misinformation," Prest warned. He pointed out some political narratives "stretch the truth," and that "politicians will do what they need to win votes."
Stay tuned to Pique in the weeks ahead for more coverage of Canada's 45th general election.
